Fred Guterl: The Fate of the Species

[Leonardo Noto]

The Fate of the Species, by Fred Guterl. I'm halfway through this book and really enjoying it so far. Written by a former editor of Scientific American, this book explores possible ways that human society may be setting itself up for destruction through our growth and our technology. The book purports to take a "worst imaginable" view of the subject--however, based on the 1st chapters on influenza (I'm a physician), I'd have to say that that statement probably is an understatement b/c the postulated worst case flu scenario is, in my opinion, really as matter of "if" not "when." I highly recommend this book.

Leonardo Noto
leonardonoto.com | Physician, Paratrooper, Boxer/Grappler Turned Grumpy Old Writer!

 

[canuck]

Sorry I logged in this late in the evening, your prediction doesn't make for good bedtime reading.

 

[Leonardo Noto]

Reply

The Fate of the Species, by Fred Guterl. I'm halfway through this book and really enjoying it so far. Written by a former editor of Scientific American, this book explores possible ways that human society may be setting itself up for destruction through our growth and our technology. The book purports to take a "worst imaginable" view of the subject--however, based on the 1st chapters on influenza (I'm a physician), I'd have to say that that statement probably is an understatement b/c the postulated worst case flu scenario is, in my opinion, really as matter of "if" not "when." I highly recommend this book.

Leonardo Noto
leonardonoto.com | Physician, Paratrooper, Boxer/Grappler Turned Grumpy Old Writer!

That should have read, "really a matter of "when" not "if." We were very lucky in 2009 that H1N1 was a mild strain. The reality that if a 1918 calibre strain of flu hit us again right now we probably wouldn't be a whole lot better off than they were back then. Yes, we have anti-flu drugs but many strains are now resistant and it would take several months to gear flu shot production up to meet the threat of the new strain (on the upside, there is the chance that there might be limited protection in those who have had that year's seasonal flu shot, but this is hard to predict). You would think that since we know influenza's genome and, at least somewhat, it's rate of mutation and gene swapping, that we should be able to predict how probable the emergence of another highly pathogenic strain is -- but you would think wrong b/c we don't really understand how specific mutations translate to pathogenicity, which is the reason why nobody knew that the 2009 strain of H1N1 would be mild until after-the-fact (mild unless you were a pregnant woman, anyhow). This is a fantastic reason for why we need more influenza research, not less.

Leonardo Noto
leonardonoto.com | Physician, Paratrooper, Boxer/Grappler Turned Grumpy Old Writer! or follow me on Twitter @DrLeonardoNoto